Off-World Carbon Storage

Climate-warming carbon will be filtered from the atmosphere to fuel rockets, civilize Mars, and conquer space. They will prove how wrong scientists were to believe in the virtue of curve fitting instead of extrapolating the creativity of big engineering. They will demonstrate how private equity investors got it all wrong by investing in negative emission technologies and eternal carbon sinks, while all the money was to be made by capturing carbon in the outer atmosphere for the colonization of Mars and the Moon. Atmospheric carbon becomes a rare resource. Due to excessive atmospheric carbon removal to fuel intergalactic travel, a new ice age begins.

A recent cost analysis reveals a striking economic advantage in using space-based carbon processing for lunar transport. Moving 1,000 tons of pure carbon from Earth’s surface to the Moon is estimated to cost around $4.55 billion USD—mainly due to the immense energy required to overcome Earth’s gravity and lift such a massive payload. In contrast, a more advanced approach envisions a space-based carbon factory stationed in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). This facility would capture carbon dioxide (CO₂) directly from the upper atmosphere, react it with solar-electrolyzed hydrogen (H₂) to produce methane (CH₄), and further refine it via pyrolysis to yield pure, aromatic carbon. The process reduces 3,400 tons of CO₂ to just 1,000 tons of solid carbon, significantly streamlining the payload to be transported from LEO to the Moon. By taking advantage of lower transport costs from LEO, the total expense of this method is estimated at approximately $1.0 billion USD—a 78% cost reduction.

Future Cost Reductions in Lunar Freight

With advances in reusable rocket technology, international competition, and the development of lunar infrastructure, the cost of transporting freight from Earth to the Moon is expected to decline significantly over the coming decades. Within the next 10 to 20 years, prices may fall to approximately $500–$1,000 per kilogram, enabled by low-orbit refueling and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). In 20 to 30 years, as lunar infrastructure and fuel production mature, costs could drop further to $100–$500 per kilogram.

At these projected long-term launch costs, the case for space-based carbon factories grows even stronger. By processing CO₂ into CH₄ and densified carbon black directly in low Earth orbit, these facilities eliminate the need to launch fuel from Earth—drastically reducing mission expenses. On-site fuel production from atmospheric CO₂ could support lunar operations, interplanetary missions, and deep-space exploration, enabling a self-sustaining system that reduces dependence on Earth-based fuel logistics.

A Promising Carbon Removal Technology for Climate Change Mitigation

In addition to fueling lunar and deep-space missions, space-based carbon factories offer a novel pathway for climate mitigation by directly capturing CO₂ from Earth’s upper atmosphere and converting it into stable forms for off-world storage. By removing CO₂ and exporting it beyond Earth’s system, this technology could significantly reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. It complements terrestrial carbon removal strategies by targeting high-altitude CO₂—effectively extracting it from the planetary carbon cycle at altitude.

If scaled, space-based CO₂ capture and storage could become an integral component of global efforts to combat climate change while advancing space exploration.

When prioritizing climate action over fuel production, rockets or autonomous space drones could periodically eject collected carbon as small, dense particles—either gravitationally directed toward extraterrestrial deposition or held in orbital storage for later transport. Dense carbon forms, such as those produced via methane pyrolysis, are particularly suitable for such ejection strategies due to their mass efficiency and relative inertness. Targeting specific atmospheric strata—where CO₂ concentrations are elevated or where potent gases like methane persist—can further increase the efficiency of capture and removal.

Don't Throw Carbon into the Geological Abyss

However the future unfolds over the next 30 to 50 years, one thing is increasingly clear: atmospheric CO₂ and CH₄ will become highly valuable raw matter and strategic resources for global industry. In less than 20 years, mining carbon from the atmosphere and oceans will likely be significantly cheaper than extracting oil and gas from deep fossil deposits.

In the meantime, large-scale, temporary carbon sinks are essential to slow the pace of climate change. Biochar and direct air–captured CO₂ must be recognized as industrial feedstocks for the emerging carbon recycling economy. During their product lifetime, C-sink materials are just as effective for the climate as permanently stored geological carbon. This does not mean we should stop using biochar in agriculture, where it becomes irrecoverably mixed with soil. However, its application should not be driven solely by the aim of carbon sequestration. Its purpose and added value must be broader: to enhance plant growth, quality, and resilience, support nutrient cycling, and protect water. If no such agricultural benefits are found—or not valuable enough—biochar is better used in industrial carbon sink materials.

Geological storage of CO₂, by contrast, must not be encouraged as long as fossil carbon is still being extracted—especially when it can so readily be replaced by synthetic methane produced from CO₂ and hydrogen, electrolyzed using surplus solar energy.

We should be cautious about pursuing permanent geological carbon sequestration. Once carbon is locked underground, it is lost to future generations. Carbon—one of the primary resources of all human endeavor—must not be irreversibly buried. In a carbon-constrained future, we may come to regret the disposal of such a critical element.